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India Urea Market Outlook

Chemical fertilizers have played an important role in agricultural productivity growth in India, the world’s largest urea importer, is in the midst of a record demand year 2020-21, only increasing its significance for global trade.

The demand-supply gap of Urea fertilizer in India has increased at its pinnacle, thereby leading to increased reliance on imports. Indian urea imports totaled 9.8 Mn tons in the financial year of 2020-21, according to the government data, which is 188% of 5.2 Mn tons imported in the financial year 2009-10.

India Urea Sales in the financial year 2020-21 Increased by 4.6% over the financial year 2019-20. Does India require one urea plant every year as indicated by Sales increment?

large-scale capacity additions are also expected to come on stream in the financial year 2021-22, in India, which will guarantee to decrease imports around 4 Mn Tons.

Government of India main emphasis is on domestic urea production. India is targeting 29 Mn tons production of nitrogenous fertilizer (Urea) during the financial year 2021-22. DOF has effectively affirmed company-Wise unit-Wise production target of Urea for the financial year 2021-22.

In view of importance of fertilizers in agricultural growth and the possibility of an emerging demand-supply gap, there is need to forecast future demand.

India Urea production in the financial year 2020-21 is 24.6 Mn tons as against demand of 35.1 Mn tons in FY’2020-21. India is the major supply market in the world. The demand rate in India is expected to stand at a CAGR of 2.2% in the next 10 years. With 10 years CAGR of 2.2%, India expecting demand of Urea would be 43.6 Mn tons which lead to deficit of 19 Mn tons with current urea manufacturing capacity. This indicate that there is requirement of 15 more urea plants in India to fulfill the urea demand by the financial year 2030-31 or India reliance on urea imports will stay in future as a key purchaser and will play a significant role in global urea market.