The global fertiliser market stands at a critical inflection point as we enter Q4 2025, with volatility across nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium segments shaping trade flows and pricing power.
Nitrogen: Urea Market Awaits Clarity
Urea prices remain soft, with the market eagerly awaiting direction after China’s national holiday (1–8 October). Conflicting reports about an export window extension beyond 15 October have added uncertainty. Indonesian granular is quoted in the low USD 400s/MT, while Brazil targets USD 415 CFR. India’s next tender, coupled with the timing of China’s export closure, will define short-term sentiment. Technical urea has softened, though rumours continue to hold offers at elevated levels. Urgent buyers are advised to diversify sourcing beyond China. While a return to last month’s highs appears unlikely, a modest lift remains possible.
Ammonium Sulphate has firmed to the mid-USD 140s/MT (FOB Bulk), retaining its appeal as a lower-cost nitrogen source, though small-lot bagging inflates distribution costs.
Phosphorus: Tightening Looms
Phosphate prices continue to trend downward amid speculation of export restrictions from China. Reports suggest CIQ clearance for Chinese MAP and phosphate cargoes must be completed before 15 October, with new applications unlikely to meet the deadline. If the ban is enforced without extension, the already tight global market will face further supply pressure.
Potassium: Limited Granular Availability
Granular potassium sulphate remains scarce. Supplies from Uzbekistan and China (big bags and 9.5kg bags) are available, but access to Uzbek and Egyptian granular is limited until end-November. Powdered grades continue to flow steadily, while Potassium Nitrate and MKP FOB prices remain stable this week.
Freight Dynamics: A Mixed Picture
Container shipping markets remain under pressure from oversupply. Trans-Pacific eastbound capacity is flat, with rate hikes withdrawn and floating rates extended. Far East–Europe rates have dropped by 11–12% week over week, weighed down by soft European retail demand.
In dry bulk, supramax tonnage in Southeast Asia faces oversupply, while the Indian Ocean sees post-monsoon revival in steel and iron ore flows. Brazilian fertiliser ports, particularly Santos, Paranagua, and Rio Grande, are active but bracing for renewed congestion in Q4 as seasonal imports accelerate.
Strategic Lens
The fertiliser market is entering a decisive quarter marked by Chinese export policies, India’s tendering activity, and freight volatility. Buyers must act with agility, diversify sourcing, and time shipments strategically to navigate price swings and supply bottlenecks.