Europe’s fertilizer trade seemed stalled in early January as the European Commission signalled it might activate an Article 27a safeguard to temporarily suspend Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) charges on ammonia, urea and other nitrogen fertilizers, prompting importers, distributors and farmers to delay purchases amid mounting regulatory uncertainty. A freeze in January–February demand, normally a key stock‑building period, but partially backed by a record-high 2025 fertilizer imports, is pushing buying into March–April, tightening the logistical window and increasing the risk of supply delays ahead of the 2026/27 spring planting season.
Agriculture ministers from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain urged action to keep fertilizers affordable after massive farmer protests in Brussels on December 18. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said nitrogen prices were still about 60% above the 2020 levels, prompting calls for measures ahead of the forthcoming 2026/27 spring planting. The debates were narrowed to three options, including an Article 27a safeguard, a temporary suspension of ammonia and urea import duties, and a possible delay to the CBAM rollout for fertilizers.
The Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index climbed to 193.6 points by December 22, 2025, up 17% from 2024 and 35% from 2023, reflecting firmer global nitrogen prices. RIC: PFYWWNITIDXUKW (Profercy World Nitrogen Index).
Regulatory details: Article 27a and tariff relief
The European Commission’s 8 January guidance said Article 27a would allow the EU to temporarily remove ammonia, urea and other nitrogen fertilizers from the CBAM scope via a delegated act if their inclusion to cause a “serious and unforeseen” market harm. The measure could apply retroactively from 1 January 2026, though its immediate cash impact seemed limited because CBAM certificates would not be purchased before February 2027.
Alongside the safeguard, the Commission proposed a temporary suspension of import duties on ammonia (5.5%) and urea (6.5%) to ease near‑term costs, and highlighted a planned up to €50.0 billion farm support package, potentially expandable through EU loan schemes. The combined approach, covering a safeguard plus a tariff relief, aimed to stabilise the fertilizer market without weakening CBAM’s core objective of preventing carbon leakage, officials said.
Market reaction: liquidity collapses as uncertainty freezes buying
Liquidity in the EU nitrogen market dried up since the 2025 year started as buyers and sellers postponed spot and forward deals amid uncertainty over a possible regulation changes regarding a CBAM safeguard. A standstill in the nitrogen fertilizer market was described by a Poland-based dealer as a “price discovery freeze”, with counterparties increasingly adding clauses on regulatory revisions and potential retroactive adjustments. Shifing nitrogen purchases from the usual January–February window into the March–April period might trigger tighter local supply in early spring, temporary shortages and sharper price swings across Western Europe, a France‑based distributor said.
Strong pre‑season buying ahead of the CBAM setting in force from early 2026 pushed nitrogen demand in November–December 2025 30–40% above the five‑year average, but at least a 30% import drop was expected for the January–February 2026 period, while Q3 import prospects looked uncertain so far due to the lack of netback talks, a France‑based trader said.
Producers remained divided: one representative person from a Bulgaria-based nitrogen manufacturer urged postponing CBAM until farmer margins to improve, while Yara International, a leading Norwegian producer of mineral fertilizers, warned that softening the mechanism “would undermine incentives for low‑carbon ammonia investment” and weaken EU decarbonisation efforts.
EU’s 2025 nitrogen fertilizer import set a new benchmark on strong demand fuelled by both tariff and regulation changes with a record 11.4 million tonnes deliveries recorded as of January 15, up 23.8% from 2024 and nearly 50% above the 2021 volumes, according to the European Commission’s data, though November–December data remained preliminary.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022* | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| 7.22 | 7.62 | 11.39 | 9.85 | 9.20 | 11.39 |
Table 1. EU nitrogen fertilizers import, 2020-2025, in million tonnes
Source: EU Commission data
* 2022 was an a typical year, as the energy crisis and gas‑price surge forced EU nitrogen plants to cut output, prompting higher imports amid sanctions, logistics disruptions and efforts to build strategic reserves.
The euro’s appreciation has increased pressure on EU fertilizer producers and importers, with EUR rate rising to about $1.1614 by January 16, 2026, over 12% above its level a year earlier. RIC: EUR=
What’s next?
Article 27a, a part of the December 2025 amendment to Regulation (EU) 2023/956, is awaiting final approval before the safeguard can be applied. Until clarity emerges, the EU fertilizer market is likely to remain cautious, with nitrogen purchases shifting from January–February into a compressed March–April window, potentially straining logistics during an already narrow spring application period, making timely deliveries essential to avoid disruptions to nitrogen use in the 2026/27 planting campaign.
Author: Iryna Prodan, Research Analyst, Agriculture Edited by Svitlana Malys © LSEG 2026. All rights reserved.
Iryna Prodan is an experienced agricultural market analyst with over 15 years of expertise in the EU and Ukrainian markets. She specializes in fertilizer price assessments—particularly ammonium nitrate and urea—as well as grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils across the EU and South America. At the London Stock Exchange Group, she delivers daily insights and independent research that support strategic decisions in agribusiness, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and pricing trends.
📍 Based in Gdynia, Poland
📧 Iryna.Prodan@lseg.com; +48 693 709 919